Northern Ireland Greenhouse Gas Projection Statistics Released
Date published:
Northern Ireland greenhouse gas projection statistics based on 2021 greenhouse gas inventory statistics have been published today by the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs.
This statistical report details the Northern Ireland greenhouse gas (GHG) projections. It projects emissions of GHGs in NI from 2022 to 2032 and considers the reduction in emissions from 1990 to 2032. The 2021 greenhouse gas inventory as well as projections data for energy, agriculture, population, electricity demand, gas and land use change are used to estimate emissions from 2022 to 2032.
This update does not consider the proposals being formulated for the NI Climate Action Plan (CAP). It is envisaged that these will be included in future updates on the finalisation and agreement of the CAP.
The key points are:
- The Northern Ireland Greenhouse Gas Inventory for 1990 to 2021 estimated 2021 emissions to be 22 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e). This was a 23% decrease on the 29 MtCO2e emitted in the base year.
- The projections in this report provide an estimate of emissions of greenhouse gases in Northern Ireland from 2022 to 2032. The projection based on the 1990 to 2021 inventory is that greenhouse gas emissions in Northern Ireland will reduce by 33% between the base year and 2032 to 20 MtCO2e.
- Projected emissions for 2032 are expected to decrease by 13% (3 MtCO2e) compared to 2021.
Further Information
The statistical report containing more detail.
Notes to editors:
- The data in this report are based on a model which incorporates the 2021 GHG inventory data and various projection data for energy, agriculture, population, electricity demand, gas and land use change.
- The model was extensively updated in 2019 to review the assumptions used for each sector with particular attention given to the energy sector. The model was revised to allow easier integration of data and recoded to provide better alignment to the National Communication (NC) sectors.
- There are four main sections in the report which covers NI overview, results by sector, impacts of policy on projections and changes since previous projections.
- Greenhouse Gas emissions include seven gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3). The last four gases are collectively referred to as fluorinated gases or F gases. Depending on their molecular weights, radiative properties and residence times in the atmosphere, each greenhouse gas is weighted by its global warming potential (GWP), so that total greenhouse gas emissions can be reported on a consistent basis. The GWP for each gas is defined as its warming influence relative to that of carbon dioxide. Greenhouse gas emissions are then presented in carbon dioxide equivalent units.
- These Official Statistics in Development comply with the UK Statistics Authority Code of Practice for statistics.
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